Unemployment yesterday, unemployment today

Unemployment through the ages (well, since I was born).
From 1958 to the present, there have been 31 instances of "emergency unemployment" benefits (e.g., beyond the usual 26 weeks of benefits). Of these, 23 (75%) were not paid for by any "offset".

If you recall the long, very long, and grueling march towards an unemployment extension last summer (I do, and have the cspan logs to prove it), which was finally retroactively passed about 6 weeks after expiring. Well there was a huge debate in Congress about whether to "offset" it, in other words find some way of paying for it. The Republicans all clamoured for an offset - "It must be paid for"! The Democrats clamoured "This is an emergency! You don't need an offset for an emergency!"

So apparently through history over the past half century, 75% of these emergency unemployment extensions were deemed emergencies. Whether they were true emergencies, or whether the people in power just wanted to grant them, or whether states were broke and couldn't pay for them, or whatever. I wonder if we just lack the creativity as a nation to figure out how to keep people employed.

So here in Oregon, we have a benevolent Legislature, who understands that Oregon has one of the highest unemployment rates in the country. Can't continue to blame that spotted owl, or Bush, or the volatility of high tech. Well, maybe the volatility of high tech. But the Legislature, along with the very important topics of banning non-certified firewood into the state, passing bills that "encourage agencies to work together", and, as they like to say, bills that require the counting of frogs. Well they did pass a short-term unemployment extension. Oregon Emergency Benefits III.

It is available to people who have exhausted (run out) of their 99 weeks of unemployment. They can get up to 6 weeks of benefits, and already the program is oversubscribed. At 1:58pm on Friday, the queue times were:
156 people on hold, waiting to talk to a claims rep
801 people waiting for a callback (which is a nifty innovation, and doesn't suck up cell minutes)
3,172 calls had been handled thus far that day.
Hold time: 90 mins

Note - for fastest time through the call-in lines, learn a few lines of Vietnamese. That queue always always has the shorted hold times.

And today, there is a job fair at Century H.S. in Hillsboro. The sign reads "Custodians" as in janitors. Looks like they have cops directing traffic. They must be expecting a lot of people, and at noon there were dozens of cars in the lot. I wonder if these are real school district jobs, or contract jobs. I am suspicious. This is something school districts try to do to save money, but not sure I want contract people cleaning lockers at my kids' elementary school. Rather a known person who looks out for the kids and who they know by name. A school village is not just about cost.

I don't hear anyone talking about green shoots anymore. I don't hear anyone talking about jobs programs anymore, except in political rhetoric. Paul Krugman in the NY Times today bemoans that no one is talking about unemployment anymore.

Creative job solutions. Don't expect them from your politicians any time soon.

Opportunity Cost: Defined

Here we are, some kids in elementary school, or even middle school, have spent their whole lives with the U.S. in some kind of war. In Iraq. Now Afghanistan.

What is the resource toll? Someone wrote a book in the past year that racked up the eventual cost to be $3TR, as in Trillion dollars. 4,500 service people gave their lives.

And what have we achieved? Removal of strongman Saddam Hussein, incremental improvement in society, but perhaps less security. And Afghanistan?

I remember from the book "Kite Runner", the pomegranate trees in Afghanistan. Well are people able to make a living on pomegranate these days? Is there some semblance of order in society? Not yet I fear.

Meanwhile, there are multitudes longing to be free. Willing to stake their lives to gain freedom from oppression for themselves. For their kids. For their grandkids. For Their Country. Which is something they've probably never been able to even think about, much less say, "My Country".

Wow. We take so much for granted in the U.S. I have the right and privilege to criticize a sitting president. I have the right to petition my government to have my grievances redressed (see: 1st Amendment, U.S. Constitution).

But back to opportunity cost. The multitudes in Libya, where we carefully define our role. In there at a moment's notice, hundreds of Tomahawk cruise missiles were fired on Libya to take out Qaddafi's defenses. OK the U.S. military may be the only operation on earth capable of carrying that out, including military readiness, accurate strike fighters, knowledge of how to deploy these things in an instant of crisis. And now perhaps Raytheon will benefit, and maybe even U.S. jobs to boot to build the force back up.

Meanwhile, we carefully draw the line of how far we are willing to go in Libya. Maybe all those warplanes were sitting around, and ready. What about troops? What about "taking a nation to war", or is that a long lost concept from the 1940s, along with war bonds, victory gardens, and saving aluminum foil for the weapons munitions plants?

This is Opportunity Cost, defined. What we can't do, cause our resources are tied up elsewhere. Endless operations, suffering, and whatever policy we want to call it, in Iraq, Afghanistan. Till we remove ourselves, and wonder what we have to show for it. The 2012 political candidates will all "spin" it to suit their purposes, I just know it.

While people in Libya wonder who will be there to help set them free. Then there's Syria. While Arab countries feel spring on their faces, maybe just a little, the U.S. is sidelined due to commitments elsewhere.

Silicon Valley - score another!

President Obama visited Facebook Headquarters today in Silicon Valley. Palo Alto, Cali.

A lovely town. A very rich town. A very successful town. Filled with venture capitalists. Filled with software engineers. I have no idea if all those people I saw on cspan listening to the President actually work there, I wonder what they all do?

Software was simpler back in the old days. An entire company could move just by having everyone throw their computer into the back of their car, and drive to the new digs. True story. Lattice, back in the day, lets move from Glen Ellyn to Lombard! Something like that, my Midwest memory is rusty, not because of Portland rain though maybe. The President could host (ok maybe his wife helped) a Christmas Eve party at his house and invite the whole company, which at 13 people at the time was exactly the size of his family.

Score one was when Obama visited Intel. Rah! Score 2 is him visiting Silicon Valley. Rah!

Making the case for more investment in science, math, technology. Yes indeed, said before the eyes of the free world, why do companies like these have to import more engineers. Why aren't we growing enough of our own.

I must steel myself however. He is in campaign mode. I believed once. I want to believe again. As they say, memories in America are short. And he is persuasive.

Reflections on Patriot's Day

Hailstorm
Rainbow across the sky
Sunshine
Smell of black dirt on Marion county farm fields

Brad Avakian announces he will run for Wu's Congressional seat.
Finally!!

Reactive, Part 2

Today the Standard and Poors credit rating agency voiced a "warning" about the credit of the U.S. government. Some doubt about the ability to really pay off our long-term debt.

Not sure how objective they are, but here is the White House response: its not that bad. And, I'm going to ask the House and the Senate to appoint "negotiators" to come up with a plan.

Well, negotiation may be an expedient. And maybe it is that bad. But what happened to open government? People are still scratching the details out of the continuing resolution that passed on Friday. Even legislators. Who were in the room, voting.

Score for open government today: -20.

Remember Thomas Nast

Seeing images of Pres Obama on TV just now, the OPB show "Independent Lens", he is in front of a coliseum of people with a large reader board saying something about health care. Meanwhile on MSNBC they are talking, left and right, both sides feeling abandoned by the man.

So what is it that makes a successful President? Yes Little Theorem, we stood in line for 3 hours in 90+ heat to see him when he came to Portland. Parched, and no room at waterfront park for us, but with loudspeakers we heard his voice boom across Naito Parkway.

Got to see Steve Novick campaigning on the sidewalk too. Cool enough.

I too am feeling disheartened. I was a believer. I like to be a believer. As I like to say, you have to believe in something. But what is it I was hoping for? Hope and change? yes. An end to the destructive, embarassing, and horrible Bush years? yes. Anything would be better than that. Our day had come!

And yet, world events continue. I love the Obama on the world stage, bringing us back into cooperation with other countries. His strong suit. Harmony, building bridges. Yes but not so good at playing hardball. I know I would fail at being President but I want to have continued faith in our elected leaders.

I still do. I still want a clean energy economy. I mean, even China is talking about safe industries and sustainable industries (well, do I believe that??).

Why do I think of Thomas Nast when I see the auditorium image of Obama? Mr Nast was the political cartoonist who popularized the image we know as Santa Claus. I'm sure Pere Noel, or Kris Kringle, or whoever existed back in the "old country", as my grandmother used to say. But the plump old man in the red suit, twinkle in his eye, that was a creation. Spun by the Jack Ohman of his day. And it has endured, long endured past any memory of any president from the era (sometime in the 1800's).

So what legacy, what image, will Obama have in the national psyche some 150 years from now (oh, today is the 150th anniversary of the 1st shots fired at Ft Sumpter, that began the Civil War - as in the U.S. Civil War). Will history forever be changed by him?

post script. The Thomas Nast house is in Morristown, New Jersey. Proving once again, that it is all about New Jersey.

Reactive

reactive - participating readily in reactions. As in, chemically reactive.

Sticking to the theme of warping scientific concepts to political realities, how is this relevant? Well our fair President did come out with a proposed budget for FY 2012. It was exciting at the time, it was oh so long ago. Back in mid-February (maybe Valentine's Day!)

Now our Obama is going to announce his seriousness about the deficit, and the debt, this Wednesday. I suppose he will weave these serious thoughts, including actually touching and scaling back the enormous entitlement expenditures of Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, and attempt to infuse his budget with these budget reductions.

It will be the compromise to win Republican votes. It will be his reaction to them. The tea party types, they do not compromise. Is going to meet them half way when they don't even budge, and force you to meet them close to their starting point, really the right strategy?

Isn't this the man who organized on the city streets of Chicago? Lets have it then, where is the community kick-butt organizer lurking inside??

Win-Win-Win, its all about the Washington Monument

and the cherry blossoms.
I only learned (or realized?) recently that the Washington Monument is a monument to our first Pres, George Washington. Not sure what I thought it was before - maybe a monument to the city? To our capital? Just a neat-looking obleisk type building?

So the current Pres Obama, with the darkened blue sky of our nation's capital city in the backdrop, and the whitened image of the Washington Monument, announces "deal". A deal has been reached to avoid a government shutdown. Glory be.

Win #1: He looks good - all the schoolkids and their shepherders who planned to trek on their spring break to the capitol city, to see that monument, to see those cherry blossoms, to feel a part of our nation's founding, the seeds of democracy. Budding little citizens in the making. Their trips are on! Obama saves the day! And announces a deal..

Win #2: Senator Harry Reid looks good. Those nasty policy riders the evil tea party gang planted in a continuing resolution have been stricken! Young women afraid to seek counsel from parents or others can, in confidence, find the Planned Parenthood counseling they seek. Trying to tie social policy issues to stop abortion clinics, or stop the EPA, were stricken from this budget bill, which after all as Reid has said, is a budget bill. So he saves the day, get him a cape as Super-senate-democrat!

Win #3: House Speaker John Boehner looks good. Not giving in easily, fighting fighting fighting to the very end, and even then continuing to fight. To nuke every last penny from the largest federal budget on the planet, to restore fiscal sanity. He looks good to his tea party and right-wing constituency, with Obama and Reid claiming this budget now contains "the largest reduction of federal spending in history!". So he is clear.

The conspiracy types out there may wonder if this was orchestrated? Can you orchestrate real time? Obama surely knows how to stage a win. Reid, to his credit, is always a master tactician. Boehner, did he satisfy the tea party? Maybe not 100% but they will never ever be satisfied 100% till we are all living in trees with no nasty government, but all of us armed as militia. Hmm, maybe they have something in common with tree huggers after all. Full circle.

Instant On

Just like a Chicago spring, it is winter winter winter for ever (seems like it), then one day - boom! Instant summer! Bypassing spring entirely, it is 90 degrees, flowers are all in bloom, a glorious sight wherever you go, alewives throwing themselves upon the beach (if they still do that - maybe Rahm Emanuel can do something about that, or is it carp now?)

On the federal budget, it is hard to remember what year I'm in. It is currently Fiscal Year 2011. It began in October, but its as if it hasn't yet begun. Congress is still haggling over the budget. For this current year that we are in. This should be fun, since the current continuing resolution expires on Friday April 8. Federal workers are nervous, about their own jobs. While one assumes they will get paid unemployment and states will cover that, they are none too certain. So far the cuts Congress has made in previous short-term continuing resolutions have looked like one-time funding - earmarks and such. It will not be as easy this time.

Then on to FY 2012. While the President had his own blue ribbon fiscal commission come up with sensible recommendations which rein in entitlement spending, his own proposed budget does not touch these major drivers of the federal budget. Why??

In any case, the tea party will not let the Republicans sit still. This week Rep Paul Ryan (R-WI) will present a dramatic new proposal which does not shy away from the hard work of cutting Medicaid, Social Security, and the absolute biggest driver (and growing all the time) of the federal budget, Medicare.

Diving into the great dark deep end of cutting entitlement spending is scary, I hope we all know how to swim. Or maybe a life jacket?

Meanwhile, Obama is on a short leash with Libya. I remembered this thing where it is Congress that has to declare war. But not to worry! This isn't a real war. If this was a real war, you would be instructed where to turn, where to buy war bonds, and recycle that aluminum.

Oh wait, that was the last "good" war back in the 40s. Now we enter a war, as we enter trading relations with other countries such as Vietnam. It gets some attention, it affects a huge swath of society, but the news turns our focus to new hot stories. And most people just watch the latest reality show.

Did not realize that reality shows have been hot ever since the writer's strike. I guess this is the producers' workaround to not having to rely on those finicky writers. Hard to make a living as a writer - but that doesn't mean you shouldn't try, if that is your passion.

But this "kinetic exercise" in Libya is not a war, it is an emergency. So no need to call Congress. Ah - but the timeframe is short. An emergency, according to federal timetables, is limited to 60 days. Then Obama's non-war turns into a pumpkin. The War Powers Act then requires Congress to tell us if we are In An Actual War, and To Declare it As a War.