The Oregon Bubble

Page 1 of the New York Times (Sunday Nov 2) talks of touch choices public unions are making around the country with looming state deficits. New governors around the are country being inaugurated. What can we hope for in Oregon? Then again, what can we expect?

I come from an Eastern state that lost population in the 2010 Census. New Jersey is always in the news. Property taxes are sky high, and even my liberal (some of them) relatives worship Chris Christie for the tough reforms he has had to make. Cleaning up municipal corruption too, including nepotism, and contracts that didn’t deliver. Sounds familiar..

What about Oregon? With our 1.5 legged stool of revenue (income tax mainly, constrained property tax, and no sales tax), we have a limited set of options.

Sales tax is off the table they say. Property taxes – who wants to pay more of that? I don’t, no way. Which leaves the equation: income tax and spending, and how to balance them. What kind of government are we willing to pay for?

First of all, tax is not a four-letter word. It is the government carrying out its obligation to its citizens. As a citizen I want safety. I want clean water. I want schools where kids are told and taught to succeed.

I do not want another 4-8 years of rhetoric and empty promises – make it happen.

To the new Governor K: give us a sustainable level of government services. Oregon taxpayers cannot put their tin cup out to Chinese investors as the federal government can (which is certainly not sustainable).

Nope, we are a self-reliant people. On both sides of the Cascades. Industrial North and Rural South and everything in between, even Nyssa.

Maybe you can get some ideas from Mr. Sizemore about what some people expect from government. And about the tough choices we have to make as a state. Involve your citizens, all of them.

When I read about the tough cuts and choices other states are making, and look around and see the same old sides getting ready to dig in, I wonder why Oregon seems to live in such a bubble. We are not the frontier anymore. We can’t run away to the West coast, this is it. We have to make it work here.

Fact, Hope, Reality

Fact: Oregon has 10.6% unemployment.
Hope: That by focusing on the deficit (nationally), we can get our fiscal house in order and create jobs
Reality: Not likely in 3 months time. What is significant about 3 months? Thats when all those tea partiers and Republican voters get disenchanted, yet again, with the folks they voted in yesterday. Thats when things start looking up for Obama in 2012..

Fact: War spending - is it up to $1 Trillion, or $3 Trillion now? Remember how many B-1 bombers that is (a lot). Someone pointed out that a 10-year old has lived in a country where we have *always* been at war in Afghanistan. Somehow the term "war" loses its meaning when it is persistent.
Hope: The limited government types, will they address this? Weird as Rand Paul is sometimes, I think I heard him say military spending was fair game.
Reality: How many jobs in your congressional district depend on the military-industrial complex. Oh they Republicans claim they want to cut out earmarks. Well, except for those that impact their own constituents.
Patty Murray case in point - she is massively inspiring and I would want her for my senator. Maybe I should move to Washington, except for my little patch of land up there is 100% Rossi territory. Well, so what, I will pay my taxes and not put my car up on cement blocks or anything, so it should be ok. But she does bring home the bacon, and Washington has like 7 military bases. Hmm, Washington and its economic base is sounding better all the time..
But the reality here is that along with earmarks, and military spending, come jobs. And I don't think anyone, however principled, has the stomach or ill will to kill jobs right now.

Fact: Business uncertainty kills expansion, hiring, innovation.
Hope: Are tax cuts enough? If the lame duck Congress extends, even for a year, those Bush tax cuts, will this be enough certainty?
Reality: Confidence begets confidence. Here is a factoid - the Intel expansion in Hillsboro, which just may be (acc to our current Gov Kulongoski) the biggest industrial investment at $several billions, in the nation for the past two years. Well - Intel is able to take advantage of some $30B in Stimulus provided low interest bonds. Think again, dear Republican friends, before you think Stimulus is a 4-letter word.

Fact: Consumer spending is down.
Hope: Everyone can get back to living their lives, but, live within their means.
Reality: The Foreclosure mess is messing up a lot of people's lives, including those evil bankers. This will either take ages to work out, or, maybe something sensible can happen. Maybe allowing court-ordered "workouts", where a judge can mandate re-setting your home to current market rates. Instead of what you paid for the house which may have been a bubble-inflated price.

Fact: The Oregon Governor's race - done. I think. Dudley conceded. The vote tally is slightly ahead for Kitzhaber. But the votes aren't all counted yet...
Hope: Change for something new (back to the future type of new? Well, I guess some can be nostalgic for those glory days). Hey, one time I rode 7 floors in an elevator with-the-man-who-is-projected-to-be-the-next-Gov. Seemed like a regular guy. That was my 15 seconds of brush with fame.
Reality: To be written, day by day. Tomorrow may be Day 1.