I don't hear the fat lady singing..

And this isn't the opera, with its endless dying scene.. We did see Aida, a masterpiece, the other year. It took a very very very very long time for someone to die at the end.

So this is not that tale. This is a tale of the latest "agreement" between Rs and Ds. Those tea party Republicans, those liberal Democrats. Both equally guilty of political theatre, at the expense of the American people.

I am not sure which is worse, the way the world feared and hated us under Bush II, or the way the world thinks we are completely dysfunctional right now. I could say "under Obama", but of course the extended cast of character is far broader. None of them sing, that I know of. Maybe they sing in cowboy poetry? Oh wait, that was nuked in the last federal budget.

Tiny secret: the Prez hasn't yet signed that Omnibus appropriations bill for FY 2012, and your favorite budget analyst may be talking about "cash on hand"... Good news here though, this legislation is at least on the "pending" list. So maybe Obama can sign before he goes off to improve his tan and snorkeling capabilities with the kiddos in Hawaii.

So back to singing. Boehner today says he basically "caved" and has agreed to a 2-month extension of the payroll tax cut, unemployment benefits, Medicare reimbursement rates. Wait, we've heard that before. Is this tape on a loop? And is someone trying to break in and steal my new TV? Sounds like a bad movie.

But one week ago (last Friday), there was calm in DC when there was an "agreement". Then it unraveled Sunday with those dratted Sunday talk shows, exposing the truth, no deal. So a week of teeth-gnashing, and lo and behold another deal. This time for real..

Here is the kicker - Boehner personally needs to get 100% unanimous agreement from his membership to pass this bill by unanimous consent tomorrow. Maybe he can send them all electronic spiked egg nog and they will vote yes.

Like I said, I am going to wait till the fat lady is singing, till the dead are really dead, and the opera is really over.

Twas the Night Before the UI Extension Vote..

and not a creature was stirring, not even a mouse.
Reprinted my philosophy on endless unemployment benefits (originally posted April 30, 2010):

Workfare

The prospect of long-term employment is real.

People have currently been on unemployment for 12 months and longer.

There are currently 5.5 people in line for every job (this statistic is oft-quoted of late).

People out of work for longer than one year have a tougher time getting back into the job market (at all).

Proposal

Workfare is a concept that has traditionally been used for welfare clients.

The proposal is to apply this to long-term unemployed claimants.

Operations

Do a lottery of people who have been unemployed for one year (random selection).

Those selected are obligated to perform workfare.

Workfare would require them to work for 20 hours a week – at community service, or for a nonprofit, or a public agency, or be enrolled in qualified training.

Benefits

Individuals would benefit by being engaged in productive work.

They would not be isolated, checking the job boards online in futility, in their homes.

They would be engaged in the community.

The community would benefit from services performed.

They would have an opportunity to network with others in the community, who could lead them to new career directions or possibilities.
They would have something to show for their time of unemployment besides paying the bills.

Options

The program would require workfare for those selected; it would optionally be available to others on a voluntary basis.

Sources

• Economist magazine – long term unemployment could become a reality – after 1 year of unemployment, 1 of 3 workers do not go back to work (ever).
• NY Times article – story about an artist – be willing to be engaged with people, and work for free. It could lead somewhere, network you, and it does keep you engaged and doing something useful for society.
• Neighborhood association in Beaverton – a group of unemployed individuals offering their house services to shut-in seniors.

Trading Face Masks for a Day

An elephant and a donkey meet in the road..

"No I won't budge", they each say.

Donkey - The sky is falling, its an emergency!
Elephant - Pay for it! You must pay to reconstruct that sky!

An intractable problem - what if they change sides?

Donkey (playing he's an elephant) - Right, its an emergency, but it can't go on forever, or does it? Well there is some urgency, so maybe we can pay for some of it..

Elephant (playing he's a donkey) - Some do need out help right now, so maybe help them..

Each budges just a little bit. Then a little bit more.. (iterative)

Suppose they show up with face masks and try to play each other's role - for one day.

Budget choices are hard. Why is there outcry over sending our dollars to the Middle East for oil, or over an imbalance of payments to China (Yet - we do those things anyhow..)

Yet - for something both sides feel we need - a federal unemployment extension - they hold fast to their positions. Is it political platform flag-waving (yes). Should they get over it and do what's right for people (yes).

Postscript: Friday's jobs report from the U.S. Department of Labor:
+83,000 private sector jobs created in June
-220,000 jobs lost overall in June
=> net 125,000 jobs lost in June
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Obama - nobody's listening to you about immigration - this is a diversion. Please pay attention.

Is this a Second Stimulus?

“American Jobs and Closing Tax Loopholes Act of 2010” (Amendment to HR 4213, to be debated in both the House and Senate next week starting Tuesday, with an intent to pass it and have Obama sign by Memorial Day)

Brief overview:

$174B – spending (B = Billion)

$40B – offsets (revenue)

$134B net spending

(would you call this a second stimulus?)

Emergency spending (not subject to pay-go):

$47B – Unemployment extensions (currently cutoff at June 2, they would be extended to December 31, 2010. Note this does not add additional “tiers”, it only expands the cutoff dates. Once you’ve received your regular, 4 tiers of emergency, and extended benefits, That Is It – your 99 weeks).

$24B – FMAP extensions (federal Medicaid match)

$7.7B – Cobra extensions (federal 65% pickup)

Additional spending highlights:

$64B – Medicare “doc fix” (temporary 3-year continued higher reimbursement rates)

$19.6B – Business tax credits (R&D, AMT credit for domestic capital investment, leasehold cost recovery, economically distressed tax credits, other)

$5.0B – Tax credits for individuals (state/local tax deduction, property tax deduction, tuition deduction, teacher expense deduction)

$2.4B – Increase disaster loss expenditures (think Gulf Coast)

$1.4B – Agricultural supports (did you know we have both a Wool Trust Fund and a Cotton Trust Fund, supporting domestic industries?)

$1.3B – Alternative energy (biodiesel, biomass, heavy hybrids, liquid fuels (but not woody biomass aka black liquor as the OR delegation has been pushing), green homes, energy efficient windows, etc.)

$4.6B – Settlements (Cobell, Pigford) – Native American trust accounts, black farmer restitution

$10.9B – Oil Spill Liability Trust Fund – increase 8 cents/gallon tax to 32 cents/gallon to increase fund solvency in the case of, um, national oil disasters

Closing tax loopholes (revenue):

$14.3B – closing foreign tax loopholes

$18.6B – carried interest (instead of all hedge fund manager’s income being taxed at lower capital gains tax rate, some is taxed at income tax rate)

$9.6B – service professionals not exempt from social security income cap

Something for everyone? In the past, extensions to unemployment have been held up by Republicans over a lack of emergency designation. Now they are designated emergency (interesting how much weight a single word carries), does this mean no fighting and wasting Congressional floor time next week?