Private Planes over Hillsboro: Revenue Forecast

This morning several pieces of economic news.

First, the weekly unemployment report from the U.S. Dept of Labor, the august institution that has been reporting since 1913. Is that older than the Census, no I guess not. This has been a lost year - UI numbers are up to 10.1 million, counting regular unemployment benefits + emergency benefits + extended benefits. We haven't seen numbers in the 10M range since April; well we aren't at the peak we were at then of 10.4M, yet.

Also today, the Oregon economic and revenue forecast: down another $377 million. On top of the $577M shock at the last forecast, that puts the Oregon budget down about $1Billion. For this biennium, since the state like to see time in biennial slices. So between now and June 2011 we need to pare back on schools, prisons, human services (and all the rest of the programs which together are quite small). Or - institute more taxes.

Oh wait, we already did that - remember Measure 66 and 67? Acc. to the state economist, the "data is still out" as to the real impact of M66 and M67. Will it be the state's savior, as the Democrats said? Or will it kill business, as the Republicans said? I would say (being now a Progressive, though my party does not appear to communicate very well with its 1800 members) neither. It is nice to not have to take party lines any more.

The state economist, Mr Potiowsky, seemed almost optimistic about the prospects of an Intel plant. This made me nervous. Isn't economics supposed to be the dismal? Why wasn't he more dismal?? For a fab that has been rumored since 2005 (according to various google rumors out there) - the new new technology of 450mm wafers. A lot of construction then - the sustainable level of 200 new jobs. Not that exciting.

This evening lets take a tally at the street level.
At the gym I see that Intel has rented not only Conference Room 1, 2, 3 publicly, but also Conference Room 4 (privately). Intel spouses are working out while their mates are meeting. I did also see 250 jobs posted for Hillsboro on their website. Engineering jobs too - interesting software jobs, and related hardware, marketing etc. Lets see the world through software eyes just this once, ok. +4, +250

Spillover effect - Jamba Juice. High tech parents with kids in tow, +1.
The land next to this strip mall - in development, earthmoving equipment and everything. A good sign, I think. Though, what about all those vacant buildings that remain - Evergreen Parkway, Sunset Hwy, etc.? I hope no one is thinking we can build ourselves out of this recession. +1, -1

Small businesses? They truck up and down I-5 all day and night I am convinced. So I guess they can afford these trips. +1

So, maybe if you, like Mr Potiowsky, hope for something it can become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Private planes flying at twilight. +1 Someone has the money to fly these planes. At twilight. How cool!

Final economic tally:
+4 + 250 + 1 +1 -1 +1 +1 = +257. Not bad for one day.