Fact, Hope, Reality

Fact: Oregon has 10.6% unemployment.
Hope: That by focusing on the deficit (nationally), we can get our fiscal house in order and create jobs
Reality: Not likely in 3 months time. What is significant about 3 months? Thats when all those tea partiers and Republican voters get disenchanted, yet again, with the folks they voted in yesterday. Thats when things start looking up for Obama in 2012..

Fact: War spending - is it up to $1 Trillion, or $3 Trillion now? Remember how many B-1 bombers that is (a lot). Someone pointed out that a 10-year old has lived in a country where we have *always* been at war in Afghanistan. Somehow the term "war" loses its meaning when it is persistent.
Hope: The limited government types, will they address this? Weird as Rand Paul is sometimes, I think I heard him say military spending was fair game.
Reality: How many jobs in your congressional district depend on the military-industrial complex. Oh they Republicans claim they want to cut out earmarks. Well, except for those that impact their own constituents.
Patty Murray case in point - she is massively inspiring and I would want her for my senator. Maybe I should move to Washington, except for my little patch of land up there is 100% Rossi territory. Well, so what, I will pay my taxes and not put my car up on cement blocks or anything, so it should be ok. But she does bring home the bacon, and Washington has like 7 military bases. Hmm, Washington and its economic base is sounding better all the time..
But the reality here is that along with earmarks, and military spending, come jobs. And I don't think anyone, however principled, has the stomach or ill will to kill jobs right now.

Fact: Business uncertainty kills expansion, hiring, innovation.
Hope: Are tax cuts enough? If the lame duck Congress extends, even for a year, those Bush tax cuts, will this be enough certainty?
Reality: Confidence begets confidence. Here is a factoid - the Intel expansion in Hillsboro, which just may be (acc to our current Gov Kulongoski) the biggest industrial investment at $several billions, in the nation for the past two years. Well - Intel is able to take advantage of some $30B in Stimulus provided low interest bonds. Think again, dear Republican friends, before you think Stimulus is a 4-letter word.

Fact: Consumer spending is down.
Hope: Everyone can get back to living their lives, but, live within their means.
Reality: The Foreclosure mess is messing up a lot of people's lives, including those evil bankers. This will either take ages to work out, or, maybe something sensible can happen. Maybe allowing court-ordered "workouts", where a judge can mandate re-setting your home to current market rates. Instead of what you paid for the house which may have been a bubble-inflated price.

Fact: The Oregon Governor's race - done. I think. Dudley conceded. The vote tally is slightly ahead for Kitzhaber. But the votes aren't all counted yet...
Hope: Change for something new (back to the future type of new? Well, I guess some can be nostalgic for those glory days). Hey, one time I rode 7 floors in an elevator with-the-man-who-is-projected-to-be-the-next-Gov. Seemed like a regular guy. That was my 15 seconds of brush with fame.
Reality: To be written, day by day. Tomorrow may be Day 1.

Prisoner #6 and Hopscotch

dear Gov -- from #6 to #1:
First, thanks for the furlough day off! OK it was unpaid, ok so we had to send my day's wages back to the federal agency from whence it came, but it had the appearance of saving money! And, I had a day off, which I did appreciate.

Now lets see who shall I vote for, I am getting a bit perplexed.
Dudley - not willing to stand up against offshore drilling. Feels he must side with the Republicans, who have all taken the same vow to "say" they don't believe in global warming. Must be things like sun spots (convincing, but not convincing enough). To unify the world, global warming is the single most important international issue. Also to improve our economy, our air, give us jobs, and on and on and on.

Then again, how much control does a Gov have about such things? Should he really be focused on the state economy, and not the international presence of Oregon? Answer: he/she should focus on all of the above. We are all interconnected in the world, no turning back.

Meanwhile, on the Kitz front - will you really listen to anyone? Or do you have all the right policy answers? I read today that when you were Gov in a previous life, you vetoed environmental legislation something like 32 times. So tell me, what is that about??

My new party, the Progressive Party. I received a voter registration card, so its real! The symbol is 'PRG'. There are complaints that the Secretary of State wants to stick to 3-letter abbreviations for party affiliation. Well DEM and REP are probably well know. Is PRG possibly going to be confused with 'Pregnant candidate'? And I am not, I tested negative!

So Gov-to-be, lets think about this some more. Prisoner #6 is the designation from "the Prisoner", that fine Patrick McGoohan series from the 60's, that was avidly watched in the 70s at a certain lovely college I know very well (in between failing math exams I guess).

question for today - how is Congress like hopscotch? Give up?
One foot, two feet, jump again. Then start the sequence all over again..
Democrats are coming out swinging with very very positive commercials touting health care reform (rah!). They have also passed financial regulation. What the Dems do, the Republicans, should they gain control of Congress, are threatening to undo. Back to square one, as if none of this ever existed.

And our Mt Tabor was in the news today. The head of Hawthorne Auto Clinic, Jim Houser, was asked to be part of Obama's press pool today, and bear witness to the fact that the new health care reform has helped save his small business money. Possibly my new auto repair shop, now that I've made a vow (please keep me to this!!) not to go to the dealer anymore.

postscript. Today I was designated printer slot #6 in the new multiplex printer that serves the west side of financial services. Example of cosmic coincidence, for those looking for examples.

Good Thing I-5 is a Federal Highway

I can only guess that farmers' permission is needed to put up political signs - so far Thatcher and Dudley. With the emphasis on Dudley. Not a single Kitzhaber sign, or whoever Thatcher is running against.

If we liberals were to drive along state routes with these signs maybe they would try to tax us.

Oh but that would run counter to their philosophy, right..

I wonder how they think these fine highways get maintained. 18 cents per gallon of gas federal highway tax doesn't cut it.

Don't they like driving their nice big trucks and refuse mileage standards and most of them refuse to believe in global warming too?

Driving into oblivion for today - as if tomorrow doesn't matter. As if the fact that even highways across this huge country should be called into question since over 50% of the world's population lives in cities. Do they think it can't happen here?

Its already reality. Oh but, they prefer yesterday's reality - everyone has a quaint farm a Dudley sign on the lawn, maybe a stay at home wife too!

We all like to see the past with rose-colored glasses, well I know I do - but thats not going to get us to tomorrow.

(I promise no more mean blogs, there are enough out there, only this one..)

On Person One Idea

Republican candidate for Governor Dudley & Zero Based Budgeting, against the entrenched constituency groups.

Is this David vs. Goliath, or will he amass armies to his side in the name of "fiscal discipline for the State of Oregon"?

Well it was fun to think about ZBB as a public administration student. Refreshing, almost. Compared with looking at the massive Washington County budget, and deciding where to make 10% cuts and how to implement the changes and still carry out mandated programs - like collecting property tax.

Or examining the CAFR (Consolidated Annual Financial Report) of Metro, the regional government, which was enlightening really. Enterprise operations such as the Zoo or the Expo center "share" in taxes collected by Metro as a taxing district. Not truly enterprise operations after all (that was in 2003 - maybe things are different now?)

But this is reality, not a student exercise. Can Mr. Dudley take a clean sheet of paper and build a state budget from the ground up?

I am skeptical. For starters, does he even know the mandates state government is bound by - both in terms of state law and also federal law? Um, if you forget to include some things, like say paying matching funds for Medicaid, will the feds forget to fund us?

Is it even possible to do this?

I will watch the rental ads in Salem. I would expect there to be influence peddlers of all stripes descending on the Gov come January. Right now the horse race is 50/50. So there may be groups making "donations" to both sides. As a down payment. Space could be at a premium in Salem. No my cubicle is not for rent!

... But wait - I remember a discussion with our Deputy Director about entrepreneurial government. Maybe I could rent it out, auction it even, online (social media?!). Since from 5pm to 8am I am not occupying it.